{"id":311,"date":"2026-08-04T13:49:05","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T11:49:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/home\/"},"modified":"2026-09-11T10:55:59","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T08:55:59","slug":"home","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/","title":{"rendered":"Home"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-794e3cfa wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:75%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-query is-layout-flow wp-block-query-is-layout-flow\"><ul class=\"wp-block-post-template is-layout-flow wp-block-post-template-is-layout-flow\"><li class=\"wp-block-post post-317 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-test-category tag-test-tag artikel-autor-thomas-fricke\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-post-featured-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1756\" height=\"1046\" src=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Bildschirmfoto-2026-08-26-um-10.44.25-e1787928023878.png\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"aspect-ratio:5\/2;width:100%;object-fit:cover;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<h1 style=\"margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--40)\" class=\"wp-block-post-title\">When well-intentioned policy ends up endangering democracy<\/h1>\n\n<div style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:600\" class=\"wp-block-post-excerpt has-large-font-size\"><p class=\"wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt\">The drama of looming electoral victories by populists and authoritarians stands in alarming contrast to the carelessness with which people here speculate about the causes. Time for an empirically grounded reality check on what really drives people&#8217;s discontent\u2014and what can remedy it. An agenda for the time ahead. <\/p><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-49329d62 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\"><div class=\"wp-block-post-date__modified-date wp-block-post-date\"><time datetime=\"2026-09-01T17:34:08+02:00\">1. September 2026<\/time><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"taxonomy-artikel-autor is-style-post-meta is-style-post-meta--1 wp-block-post-terms\"><a href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/artikel-autor\/thomas-fricke\/\" rel=\"tag\">Thomas Fricke<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:var(--wp--preset--spacing--40)\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/2026\/08\/04\/saxony-anhalt-and-angry-citizens\/\" target=\"_self\">Read more<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">: When well-intentioned policy ends up endangering democracy<\/span><\/a>\n<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide is-style-section-4 is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow is-style-section-4--2\" id=\"new-paradigm\">\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:600\">Mission resumed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Forum New Economy in the New Paradigm Alliance<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What is needed for a new economic paradigm to solve the major crises of our time? The Forum New Economy contributed to finding answers to this question from 2019 to 2026 under the umbrella of the European Climate Foundation \u2013 as a joint project of various initiators. Now the idea and mission continue \u2013 in a new setting: within the recently launched New Paradigm Alliance, an association with the Global Solutions Initiative.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can still find everything the Forum produced from 2019 to 2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newforum.org\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20)\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:350px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-query is-layout-flow wp-block-query-is-layout-flow\"><ul class=\"wp-block-post-template is-layout-flow wp-block-post-template-is-layout-flow\"><li class=\"wp-block-post post-874 podcast type-podcast status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry\">\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-style-section-1 has-global-padding is-content-justification-left is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-551619db wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained is-style-section-1--3\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-not-stacked-on-mobile is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-794e3cfa wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-8c1e2a9f wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<span class=\"wp-block-sbtl-icon sbtl-icon-block sbtl-icon-region has-dark-blue-200-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1\" style=\"--sbtl-icon-size:18px\"><span class=\"sbtl-icon\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><g fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-width=\"2\"><path d=\"M12 19v3m7-12v2a7 7 0 0 1-14 0v-2\"><\/path><rect width=\"6\" height=\"13\" x=\"9\" y=\"2\" rx=\"3\"\/><\/g><\/svg><\/span><\/span>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Podcast<\/h6>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-9602a793 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>New Econom<\/strong>y Sounds <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-style-img-round is-style-img-round--4\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"389\" height=\"397\" src=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Bildschirmfoto-2026-08-31-um-18.38.58-edited.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-741\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Bildschirmfoto-2026-08-31-um-18.38.58-edited.png 389w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Bildschirmfoto-2026-08-31-um-18.38.58-edited-294x300.png 294w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 389px) 100vw, 389px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">After the AfD shock in Saxony-Anhalt \u2013 why the federal government shares responsibility for the authoritarians\u2019 success<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Episode 2<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">the new podcast with Thomas Fricke and Martin Kaelble.<\/p>\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-elements-2 wp-block-read-more has-text-color has-base-color\" href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/podcast\/after-the-afd-shock-in-saxony-anhalt-why-the-federal-government-shares-responsibility-for-the-authoritarians-success\/\" target=\"_self\">To the podcast<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">: After the AfD shock in Saxony-Anhalt \u2013 why the federal government shares responsibility for the authoritarians\u2019 success<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-style-section-2 has-global-padding is-content-justification-left is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-551619db wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained is-style-section-2--5\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-8c1e2a9f wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<span class=\"wp-block-sbtl-icon sbtl-icon-block sbtl-icon-region\" style=\"--sbtl-icon-size:18px\"><span class=\"sbtl-icon\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><g fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-width=\"2\"><path d=\"M15 12h-5m5-4h-5m9 9V5a2 2 0 0 0-2-2H4\"><\/path><path d=\"M8 21h12a2 2 0 0 0 2-2v-1a1 1 0 0 0-1-1H11a1 1 0 0 0-1 1v1a2 2 0 1 1-4 0V5a2 2 0 1 0-4 0v2a1 1 0 0 0 1 1h3\"><\/path><\/g><\/svg><\/span><\/span>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reality Check<\/h6>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">When populists win \u2013 and what policies truly help against discontent<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why do people vote for populists and authoritarians? Fear of migrants or inflation? Upheavals or a lack of reforms?   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An exclusive analysis of the state of research on what really lies behind anger and discontent in Germany and elsewhere \u2013 and what doesn&#8217;t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-read-more wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"#faktencheck\">To the analysis<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-query is-layout-flow wp-block-query-is-layout-flow\"><ul class=\"columns-3 wp-block-post-template is-layout-grid wp-container-core-post-template-is-layout-a4781bd8 wp-block-post-template-is-layout-grid\"><li class=\"wp-block-post post-823 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-unkategorisiert artikel-autor-luis-wunder\">\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-style-section-2 post-fill-height has-global-padding is-content-justification-left is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-551619db wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained is-style-section-2--6\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-layout-flex wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\" style=\"margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50)\"><div class=\"wp-block-post-date__modified-date wp-block-post-date\"><time datetime=\"2026-09-01T17:36:08+02:00\">1. September 2026<\/time><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"taxonomy-artikel-autor is-style-post-meta is-style-post-meta--7 wp-block-post-terms\"><a href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/artikel-autor\/luis-wunder\/\" rel=\"tag\">Luis Wunder<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-post-title\">Inflation shocks \u2013 the underestimated driver of discontent<\/h4><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-post-excerpt\"><p class=\"wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt\">When there is a larger influx of people into Germany, more people vote for extreme parties. So the claim goes. In reality, a different connection becomes much clearer on closer inspection: support for populists has risen sharply when inflation is high. <\/p><\/div>\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/2026\/08\/31\/inflation-shocks-the-underestimated-driver-of-discontent\/\" target=\"_self\">Read more<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">: Inflation shocks \u2013 the underestimated driver of discontent<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n<\/li><li class=\"wp-block-post post-825 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-unkategorisiert artikel-autor-forum-new-economy\">\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-style-section-2 post-fill-height has-global-padding is-content-justification-left is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-551619db wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained is-style-section-2--8\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-layout-flex wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\" style=\"margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50)\"><div class=\"wp-block-post-date__modified-date wp-block-post-date\"><time datetime=\"2026-09-01T17:37:11+02:00\">1. September 2026<\/time><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"taxonomy-artikel-autor is-style-post-meta is-style-post-meta--9 wp-block-post-terms\"><a href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/artikel-autor\/forum-new-economy\/\" rel=\"tag\">Forum New Economy<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-post-title\">Lessons from Trump\u2019s election victory \u2013 an interview in search of the causes<\/h4><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-post-excerpt\"><p class=\"wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt\">Is active regional development policy the key to combating rising populism? Economist Robert Gold explains why regional support in the US has (so far) produced no measurable effects, how regional policy must be designed to change that \u2013 and what role loss of control and trust play. <\/p><\/div>\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/2026\/08\/26\/lessons-from-trumps-election-victory-an-interview-in-search-of-the-causes\/\" target=\"_self\">Read more<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">: Lessons from Trump\u2019s election victory \u2013 an interview in search of the causes<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n<\/li><li class=\"wp-block-post post-827 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-unkategorisiert artikel-autor-thomas-fricke\">\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-style-section-2 post-fill-height has-global-padding is-content-justification-left is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-551619db wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained is-style-section-2--10\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-layout-flex wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\" style=\"margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50)\"><div class=\"wp-block-post-date__modified-date wp-block-post-date\"><time datetime=\"2026-09-01T17:40:04+02:00\">1. September 2026<\/time><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"taxonomy-artikel-autor is-style-post-meta is-style-post-meta--11 wp-block-post-terms\"><a href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/artikel-autor\/thomas-fricke\/\" rel=\"tag\">Thomas Fricke<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-post-title\">Where is the New Economy? An Attempt at a Progress Report<\/h4><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-post-excerpt\"><p class=\"wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt\">Since the collapse of market-liberal dogma nearly 20 years ago, innovative thinkers have been searching for more appropriate answers to the problems of our time. In the meantime, a consensus on goals and principles has grown\u2014despite the defensive struggles of resurgent market radicals and ordoliberal nostalgics. <\/p><\/div>\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/2026\/08\/26\/where-is-the-new-economy-an-attempt-at-a-progress-report\/\" target=\"_self\">Read more<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">: Where is the New Economy? An Attempt at a Progress Report<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide is-style-section-4 is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow is-style-section-4--12\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-794e3cfa wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1011\" src=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/FNE-wordmark300dpi-1024x1011.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-572\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1;object-fit:cover;width:250px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/FNE-wordmark300dpi-1024x1011.png 1024w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/FNE-wordmark300dpi-300x296.png 300w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/FNE-wordmark300dpi-768x758.png 768w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/FNE-wordmark300dpi.png 1183w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-stretch justify-between-vertical is-layout-flow wp-container-core-column-is-layout-627e61e7 wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-contrast-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-3\">Newsletter<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Our update on new ideas to tackle the crises of our time &#8211; every two weeks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>ad-free | unsubscribe anytime<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button icon-btn icon-arrow\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.us15.list-manage.com\/subscribe?u=e259dcd54b518747db1ab5012&amp;id=1047a162c6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div id=\"new-economy\" class=\"wp-block-group is-style-section-3 is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow is-style-section-3--13\" style=\"padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50)\">\n<h1 id=\"neweconomy\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Economy in the making<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Despite all market nostalgia: a new paradigm is gaining contours \u2013 a stopover.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--14 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Beyond Trumpian trade wars or German market nostalgia, the contours of a new paradigm have developed in recent years that is far better suited to the major challenges of our time. Among innovative researchers and thinkers, there is now a consensus on new goals and principles \u2013 whether on the urgency of designing new policies against inequality, climate change, or globalization and AI shocks, or on redefining the role of the state. Advancing this could become important as people increasingly feel how little a revived market-liberal policy or loud national bluster changes their real problems. An attempt at a stopover.   <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" style=\"margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50);margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50)\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-794e3cfa wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-query is-layout-flow wp-block-query-is-layout-flow\"><ul class=\"wp-block-post-template is-layout-flow wp-block-post-template-is-layout-flow\"><li class=\"wp-block-post post-827 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-unkategorisiert artikel-autor-thomas-fricke\">\n<div class=\"entry-content wp-block-post-content is-layout-flow wp-block-post-content-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--15 wp-block-paragraph\">America&#8217;s president relies on tariff threats, Argentina&#8217;s head of state on radical government cuts, and in Germany, it suddenly seems as if the old Agenda 2010 era rule applies again: that people simply need to work more to solve the problems of the day. None of this suggests that, nearly 20 years after the great financial crisis, a new economic policy paradigm has developed to draw lessons from the collapse of the then-dominant market liberalism. This seems astonishing, given that for years there have been waves of new research that clearly address the new challenges of our time better than the mere hope that market-liberal reforms or increased labor could help against increasingly incomprehensible inequality, the risks of AI, climate change, or state-subsidized low-cost competition from China.  <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--16 wp-block-paragraph\">Admittedly, there is no finished new model for the new era yet. Many questions remain open. However, unlike a few years ago, something has now crystallized: a broad consensus on the goals that define the new paradigm. Unlike in the market-liberal era, it is not just about economic efficiency and growth. These alone cannot fix climate change or inequality\u2014and apparently not the fatal tendency to turn to authoritarians and populists. The fact that it involves a new distribution of roles between markets and corporations on one hand, and politics and the community on the other, is as much a part of the new understanding as the premise that there can be no lasting prosperity without positive incentives in climate policy and more active countermeasures against the dominance of a few ultra-wealthy individuals.     <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--17 wp-block-paragraph\">Behind such goals and principles have primarily been the great pioneers of the New Economy in their respective fields. This applies to Thomas Piketty, Gabriel Zucman, and Branko Milanovic, who helped ensure that drastic inequality could be statistically recorded and analyzed in the first place. It applies to Mariana Mazzucato, who is often ridiculed in established economic circles but has nonetheless provided spectacular insights into the actual strategic role of governments\u2014and thus concepts such as the idea of mission-oriented policy beyond the naive belief that markets always make decisions that are also good for people.  <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--18 wp-block-paragraph\">This also applies to many others: to Dani Rodrik and his early criticism of poorly managed globalization\u2014and his concepts of modern industrial policy or the importance of focusing on &#8220;good work&#8221; rather than just efficiency; or to Nobel laureates Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson, who have historically documented how much governments have always participated in major innovations\u2014contrary to what the dogma of market-liberal technological neutrality would suggest.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--19 wp-block-paragraph\">All of this no longer unites only the usual suspects. The extent of the consensus on the new goals and principles was expressed, for example, in the Berlin Declaration, initiated by the Forum New Economy in the spring of 2024. Signatories included Nobel laureate Angus Deaton and former IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard, as well as Aspen head Annika Mildner Storm, who a few years ago was part of a G7 group of economists exploring new approaches.  <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--20 wp-block-paragraph\">The following year, a volume titled &#8220;London Consensus&#8221; followed\u2014initiated at the renowned London School of Economics\u2014another example of bringing together what constitutes the new thinking. The Spanish government, in turn, brought together leading international new thinkers such as Mariana Mazzucato and Isabella Weber. The list could be extended significantly. The bottom line: what began as a disparate attempt by specialized experts to find new answers to partial problems has now become a fairly robust framework of new principles and goals.    <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--21 wp-block-paragraph\">Furthermore, the fact that all of this is not just an academic exercise can now be measured by several practical examples. What US President Joe Biden implemented in economic policy until 2024 (keyword: IRA) was strongly based on principles designed by the pioneers of the new paradigm, as was the EU&#8217;s Green Deal\u2014or attempts in Germany to reverse the divergence of incomes through higher minimum wages (with success). This also includes what led to the reform of the debt brake in Germany in 2025. Although resistance to this arises repeatedly, hardly anyone would still claim that the budgetary dogma of the &#8220;black zero&#8221;\u2014which had such fatal consequences for the condition of schools, roads, and railways\u2014is preferable. This, too, is a paradigm shift. Those who invest in the future do not achieve it through cuts.      <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--22 wp-block-paragraph\">Numerous surveys show how much the necessity of the new has already reached the public: there are large majorities who agree with the statement that today&#8217;s wealth gap is no longer compatible with differences in performance\u2014even among CDU and FDP voters, only a minority still finds this acceptable. A true transformation. In France in 2025, there was a majority in the National Assembly for the first time for a higher wealth tax, as proposed by Gabriel Zucman; it only failed in the Senate. This, too, would have been unthinkable a few years ago.   <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--23 wp-block-paragraph\">The question remains all the more why the new goals and principles have not yet been incorporated much more strongly into practical politics\u2014why the new paradigm still seems so absent there. One reason is likely that, beyond the growing consensus on principles and goals, there are not yet truly comprehensive, reliable practical instructions for action. The consensus that something must be done about inequality is still met with many open questions regarding the exact means. A simple wealth tax would not yet make the poor richer and would not significantly reduce inequality. A kind of starting capital of 30,000 euros or more for everyone in their early twenties would promise more\u2014but exactly how this could be distributed and abuse avoided has not yet been fully researched. What constitutes the best climate policy is also not so clear\u2014only that simply increasing levies is not optimal or even acts counterproductively seems increasingly evident.     <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--24 wp-block-paragraph\">If this is true, it also confirms a thesis that circulated early among new thinkers\u2014and was an initial assumption of the Forum New Economy&#8217;s work in its earlier phase: that the rise of populists and authoritarians since around 2015 has much to do with the decline of the market-liberal paradigm\u2014and with the fact that after the great crisis of meaning for market liberals, no finished new paradigm was ready, not even a consensus on new goals and principles like the one that exists now. Consequently, populists simply filled the vacuum with their seemingly simple but usually ineffective means. The dangerous wave of authoritarianism will only end when people are convinced of what a new paradigm brings for the actual solution to the problems of our time.  <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--25 wp-block-paragraph\">This could explain not only the election and re-election of Donald Trump or the past success of the Brexit campaign. It could also explain why, in Germany, the crude economics of the 1990s and 2000s are experiencing a revival in a much more moderate way due to a lack of mature new ideas. Those who have no new ideas reflexively fall back on the tried and tested\u2014with the fatal side effect that it was not actually that proven, and certainly is not now.  <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--26 wp-block-paragraph\">For the next stages toward a truly better new paradigm, a chance could lie exactly here. It doesn&#8217;t take much wit to recognize that it naturally helps little to work more, as the German Chancellor has proclaimed; or to engage in supposedly miraculous &#8220;structural reforms&#8221; of, say, the German pension insurance\u2014when the real problems lie in Donald Trump, the Chinese, or Elon Musk. Or in an insufficiently attractive climate policy that punishes rather than sets positive incentives.   <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--27 wp-block-paragraph\">When well-intentioned reforms are praised that de facto mean the cutting of benefits, such as in pensions, this risks appearing negligent in reality. There is plenty of empirical evidence that such cuts lead to (even more) people voting for populists. This is a bankruptcy declaration for the old economic school, which defines such things as external effects outside its own area of responsibility.  <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--28 wp-block-paragraph\">There is much to suggest that such contradictory policy is gradually being perceived as such\u2014just as it is increasingly evident that the attention-seeking, blustering politics of Donald Trump do not really help those economically who voted for him in protest. This is an opportunity for those who offer a New Economy, a new economic paradigm, in contrast. <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--29 wp-block-paragraph\">In all likelihood, this will only be successful if there are even more well-thought-out answers on how to develop enough new means, instruments, and policies based on the now-established new goals and principles to improve actual circumstances. This requires concrete concepts for a more attractive climate policy, the testing of starting capital to reduce inequality, a better understanding of industrial policy based on concrete practical examples, or a better-managed globalization. This is a task for the coming period\u2014for the Forum, as for all who are convinced that things will not get better with the old recipes, but worse. The foundation of increasingly shared goals and principles has been laid\u2014now comes the next stage.   <\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;There is now a consensus on the goals and principles of a new economy. More progress is still needed in developing concrete policy\u2014to stop the populists as well.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-style-section-5 has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained is-style-section-5--30\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-92f02c26 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Economy \u2013 many minds<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Across schools and parties<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"698\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/kopefe-hoch-698x1024.png\" alt=\"Some signatories of the Berlin Summit Declaration\" class=\"wp-image-463\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/kopefe-hoch-698x1024.png 698w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/kopefe-hoch-205x300.png 205w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/kopefe-hoch-768x1127.png 768w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/kopefe-hoch-1047x1536.png 1047w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/kopefe-hoch-1396x2048.png 1396w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/kopefe-hoch.png 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 698px) 100vw, 698px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"icon-link icon-arrow-link wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/2026\/08\/25\/829\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-admin\/post.php?post=764&amp;action=edit\">More<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-style-section-2 has-base-background-color has-background has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained is-style-section-2--31\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-92f02c26 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">One consensus, many forms<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/newforum.org\/the-berlin-summit-declaration-winning-back-the-people\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/newforum.org\/the-berlin-summit-declaration-winning-back-the-people\/\">Berlin Declaration<\/a><\/strong> 2024 to the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/school-of-public-policy\/research\/london-consensus\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/school-of-public-policy\/research\/london-consensus\">London Consensus<\/a><\/strong> 2025 and the Global <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ucl.ac.uk\/bartlett\/news\/2026\/apr\/prof-mazzucato-and-minister-cuerpo-launch-global-council-new-economics-21st-century\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.ucl.ac.uk\/bartlett\/news\/2026\/apr\/prof-mazzucato-and-minister-cuerpo-launch-global-council-new-economics-21st-century\">Council on New Economics<\/a><\/strong> for the 21st Century, launched by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in April 2026: ever new initiatives suggest how developed and advanced the thinking about an alternative to the market-liberal paradigm has become.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How the principles of the new consensus could look can be exemplified by the basic tenets of the Berlin Declaration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>New goals include shared prosperity and good jobs instead of one-dimensional efficiency<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Proactive industrial policy is needed to anticipate regional disruptions<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Better managed globalization is also needed to avoid overly harsh disruptions<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity does not automatically lead to trickle-down and better distribution \u2013 active corrections are needed here<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Climate policy through higher pricing threatens to be counterproductive \u2013 investments are also needed <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A new balance between markets and collective action is also needed<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Policies are needed to limit market power<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"icon-link icon-arrow-link wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/newforum.org\/the-berlin-summit-declaration-winning-back-the-people\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/newforum.org\/the-berlin-summit-declaration-winning-back-the-people\/\">To the full Declaration<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div id=\"podcast\" class=\"wp-block-group is-style-section-1 has-base-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-4 has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-bc48471d wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained is-style-section-1--32\" style=\"padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50)\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide is-layout-flow wp-container-core-group-is-layout-04fcdeef wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-794e3cfa wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center is-layout-flow wp-container-core-column-is-layout-852d38e6 wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:75%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-168af689 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<span class=\"wp-block-sbtl-icon sbtl-icon-block sbtl-icon-region\" style=\"--sbtl-icon-size:36px\"><span class=\"sbtl-icon\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><g fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-width=\"2\"><path d=\"M12 19v3m7-12v2a7 7 0 0 1-14 0v-2\"><\/path><rect width=\"6\" height=\"13\" x=\"9\" y=\"2\" rx=\"3\"\/><\/g><\/svg><\/span><\/span>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-base-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-5\">New Economy Sounds \u2013 The Podcast<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--33 wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Why is the old economy failing to address the major crises of our time \u2013 and what does a new economic paradigm look like? Here, Thomas Fricke speaks with new and not-so-new thinkers from politics, research, and business. <\/strong> Moderated by Martin Kaelble.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:25%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full has-custom-border is-style-img-round is-style-img-round--34\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"556\" height=\"636\" src=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Bildschirmfoto-2026-08-31-um-18.49.47.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-751\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-top-left-radius:var(--wp--preset--border-radius--medium);border-top-right-radius:var(--wp--preset--border-radius--medium);border-bottom-left-radius:var(--wp--preset--border-radius--medium);border-bottom-right-radius:var(--wp--preset--border-radius--medium);aspect-ratio:16\/9;object-fit:cover;object-position:57% 38%\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Bildschirmfoto-2026-08-31-um-18.49.47.png 556w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Bildschirmfoto-2026-08-31-um-18.49.47-262x300.png 262w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 556px) 100vw, 556px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-query is-layout-flow wp-block-query-is-layout-flow\"><ul class=\"columns-3 wp-block-post-template is-layout-grid wp-container-core-post-template-is-layout-a4781bd8 wp-block-post-template-is-layout-grid\"><li class=\"wp-block-post post-874 podcast type-podcast status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry\">\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9b7bffa5 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-post-featured-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/podcast\/after-the-afd-shock-in-saxony-anhalt-why-the-federal-government-shares-responsibility-for-the-authoritarians-success\/\" target=\"_self\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"2560\" src=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-scaled.png\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"After the AfD shock in Saxony-Anhalt \u2013 why the federal government shares responsibility for the authoritarians\u2019 success\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1;width:100%;object-fit:cover;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-scaled.png 2560w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-1024x1024.png 1024w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-768x768.png 768w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-1536x1536.png 1536w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-2048x2048.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-5356838c wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\"><p class=\"field-folge_nummer is-style-post-meta wp-elements-6 is-style-post-meta--35 wp-block-acf-field-blocks-acf-text has-text-color has-dark-blue-200-color\"><span class=\"prefix\">Folge <\/span><span class=\"value\">2<\/span><\/p>\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/podcast\/after-the-afd-shock-in-saxony-anhalt-why-the-federal-government-shares-responsibility-for-the-authoritarians-success\/\" target=\"_self\" >After the AfD shock in Saxony-Anhalt \u2013 why the federal government shares responsibility for the authoritarians\u2019 success<\/a><\/h5>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-49329d62 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\"><div style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\" class=\"wp-block-post-date\"><time datetime=\"2026-09-11T10:27:04+02:00\">11. September 2026<\/time><\/div>\n\n<p style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\" class=\"field-dauer is-style-post-meta wp-elements-7 is-style-post-meta--36 wp-block-acf-field-blocks-acf-text has-text-color has-dark-blue-200-color\"><span class=\"value\">43 min<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/li><li class=\"wp-block-post post-315 podcast type-podcast status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry\">\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9b7bffa5 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><figure class=\"wp-block-post-featured-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/podcast\/industrial-policy-after-draghi-why-europe-must-finally-stop-being-ashamed\/\" target=\"_self\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"2560\" src=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-scaled.png\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Why do people vote for populists?\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1;width:100%;object-fit:cover;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-scaled.png 2560w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-1024x1024.png 1024w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-768x768.png 768w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-1536x1536.png 1536w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/NES-apple-podcast-3000x3000px-2048x2048.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-5356838c wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\"><p class=\"field-folge_nummer is-style-post-meta wp-elements-8 is-style-post-meta--37 wp-block-acf-field-blocks-acf-text has-text-color has-dark-blue-200-color\"><span class=\"prefix\">Folge <\/span><span class=\"value\">1<\/span><\/p>\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/podcast\/industrial-policy-after-draghi-why-europe-must-finally-stop-being-ashamed\/\" target=\"_self\" >Why do people vote for populists?<\/a><\/h5>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-49329d62 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\"><div style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\" class=\"wp-block-post-date\"><time datetime=\"2026-08-31T15:11:35+02:00\">31. August 2026<\/time><\/div>\n\n<p style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:400\" class=\"field-dauer is-style-post-meta wp-elements-9 is-style-post-meta--38 wp-block-acf-field-blocks-acf-text has-text-color has-dark-blue-200-color\"><span class=\"value\">45 min<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div id=\"faktencheck\" class=\"wp-block-group is-style-section-2 is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow is-style-section-2--39\" style=\"padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--50)\">\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\" id=\"realitycheck\">Reality Check &#8211; What really helps <\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center is-style-text-teaser is-style-text-teaser--40 wp-block-paragraph\">What explains the rise of populists and authoritarians in recent years \u2013 and what truly helps against discontent? An analysis based on the latest modern research.  <a href=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-admin\/post.php?post=682&amp;action=edit\">How the Reality Check came about.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-contrast-color\">From an age of great shocks and uncertainties&#8230;<\/mark><\/h4>\n\n\n<div class=\"forumtheme-wordcloud alignwide wp-elements-10 wp-block-forumtheme-wordcloud has-text-color has-aubergine-700-color\"><div class=\"forumtheme-wordcloud__row\" style=\"padding-right:4%;\"><span class=\"forumtheme-wordcloud__item has-x-large-font-size\">Globalization<\/span><span class=\"forumtheme-wordcloud__item has-large-font-size\">Techno-shocks<\/span><span class=\"forumtheme-wordcloud__item has-x-large-font-size\">Deregulation<\/span><\/div><div class=\"forumtheme-wordcloud__row\" style=\"padding-left:7%;\"><span class=\"forumtheme-wordcloud__item has-large-font-size\">Market liberalization<\/span><span class=\"forumtheme-wordcloud__item has-x-large-font-size\">Globalization<\/span><span class=\"forumtheme-wordcloud__item has-large-font-size\">Techno-shocks<\/span><\/div><div class=\"forumtheme-wordcloud__row\" style=\"padding-left:1%;\"><span class=\"forumtheme-wordcloud__item has-large-font-size\">Globalization<\/span><span class=\"forumtheme-wordcloud__item has-large-font-size\">Market liberalization<\/span><span class=\"forumtheme-wordcloud__item has-large-font-size\">Social Media<\/span><span class=\"forumtheme-wordcloud__item has-large-font-size\">Techno-shocks<\/span><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-contrast-color\">&#8230; to a deep-seated concern about loss of control and powerlessness<\/mark><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-content-justification-center is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-d0b8062c wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading is-style-heading-background is-style-heading-background--41\">Powerlessness<\/h5>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-a78f41f9 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:29%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-content-justification-center is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-d0b8062c wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading is-style-heading-background is-style-heading-background--42\">Loss of control<\/h5>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:44%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large wp-container-content-43dee6c4\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/demo-von-hinten-ki-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-777\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/demo-von-hinten-ki-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/demo-von-hinten-ki-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/demo-von-hinten-ki-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/demo-von-hinten-ki-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/demo-von-hinten-ki-2048x1152.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:29%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-content-justification-center is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-d0b8062c wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center is-style-heading-background is-style-heading-background--43\">Unpredictable stress<\/h5>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-content-justification-center is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-d0b8062c wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center is-style-heading-background is-style-heading-background--44\">Fear of loss<\/h5>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"> <strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-contrast-color\">Checklist: What amplifies fears \u2013 and what doesn&#8217;t<\/mark><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-context=\"{ &quot;autoclose&quot;: false, &quot;accordionItems&quot;: [] }\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/accordion\" role=\"group\" class=\"wp-block-accordion is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-is-layout-flow\">\n<div data-wp-class--is-open=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-context=\"{ &quot;id&quot;: &quot;accordion-item-53&quot;, &quot;openByDefault&quot;: false }\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.initAccordionItems\" data-wp-on-window--hashchange=\"callbacks.hashChange\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-item is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-item-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading has-icon has-icon-right\" style=\"border-style:none;border-width:0px;border-top-left-radius:0;border-top-right-radius:0;border-bottom-left-radius:0;border-bottom-right-radius:0\"><button aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"accordion-item-53-panel\" data-wp-bind--aria-expanded=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.toggle\" id=\"accordion-item-53\" type=\"button\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle\" style=\"padding-top:0;padding-right:0;padding-bottom:0;padding-left:0\"><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-title\">Regional socio-economic ruptures<\/span><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+<\/span><\/button><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div aria-labelledby=\"accordion-item-53\" data-wp-bind--hidden=\"state.isHidden\" data-wp-on--beforematch=\"actions.handleBeforeMatch\" id=\"accordion-item-53-panel\" role=\"region\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-panel is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-panel-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Populists are elected everywhere. Nevertheless, it is striking that the inclination is significantly higher wherever there have been massive economic upheavals. This finding is among the best-researched. For example, economist David Autor showed in a famous study the influence of regional disruptions on the 2016 US presidential elections: Donald Trump ultimately won primarily in states that had struggled with deindustrialization. Autor&#8217;s analysis of US election votes showed that Republicans would have lost several states in the Rust Belt if the industries located there had not been so severely affected by <a>increasing imports from low-wage countries<\/a><sup>1<\/sup>.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Comparable findings emerge from studies by Thiemo Fetzer on Brexit. As the economist showed, in 2016, the vote for Brexit was particularly strong in traditional industrial locations, such as northeast England<sup>2<\/sup>. The effect was particularly pronounced when the government had implemented particularly harsh cuts in those regions (see also the austerity factor). Cities like London or Cambridge, which were not affected by the decline, voted against Brexit<sup>3<\/sup>.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a>D\u00fcsseldorf economist Jens S\u00fcdekum observed similar patterns for Germany, where regions can also be identified in which an above-average number of jobs have been lost due to economic upheavals<\/a><sup>4<\/sup>. T<a>hese regions developed into strongholds of the AfD<\/a><sup>5<\/sup>. As S\u00fcdekum and colleagues found, the AfD gained an above-average number of votes in traditional industrial regions with declining employment in manufacturing<sup>6<\/sup>. Such correlations were also observed in France, where the far-right Marine Le Pen also receives particularly high approval in the area known as the \u201cFrench Rust Belt\u201d \u2013 a region that had previously fallen into economic difficulties<sup>3<\/sup>.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Political implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the finding is correct, there is much to suggest that alternative industries should be preventively promoted in vulnerable regions when major upheavals are on the horizon. Empirical evidence for the effectiveness of such proactive regional policy is provided, among others, by Robert Gold for the EU. In a long-term evaluation of election data, the populism researcher shows that people in vulnerable regions, where the EU specifically invested in regional development, voted for fewer far-right parties in parliamentary elections<sup>7<\/sup>. Economists like Jens S\u00fcdekum and Dani Rodrik also advocate such an approach<sup>8<\/sup>. In Saarland, a transformation fund was set up a few years ago with a view to the upcoming shift to electromobility, with which investments are to be mobilized and former <a>employees in the automotive industry<\/a> are to find new jobs.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Conclusions drawn from Autor&#8217;s diagnoses were also incorporated into the regional policy implemented by US President Joe Biden from 2021 to 2024. Keyword: Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The funds were invested precisely in those regions that were considered particularly weakened \u2013 and where Donald Trump had previously been elected disproportionately.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Whether this policy was successful is rather doubtful given the Democrats&#8217; defeat in 2024. As Robert Gold showed in a systematic regional evaluation of the 2024 US presidential elections, no noticeable effect of the massive regional investments on the corresponding regional voting behavior could be observed by the elections. However, experts cite the fact that the actual positive effects of the IRA were completely overshadowed by the inflation shock that occurred after the start of the war in Ukraine as a possible reason for the lack of a reaction. According to Gold&#8217;s hypothesis, there is also much to suggest that the effects will only occur with a delay. Whether and when a proactive regional policy is successful can therefore only be proven to a limited extent at present.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--45 wp-block-paragraph\">1 Autor, D., Dorn, D., Hanson, G., &amp; Majlesi, K. (2017). A note on the effect of rising trade exposure on the 2016 presidential election. <em>Appendix to Importing Political Polarization<\/em>, 3139-3183. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--46 wp-block-paragraph\">2 Becker, S. O., Fetzer, T., &amp; Novy, D. (2017). Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis. <em>Economic policy<\/em>, <em>32<\/em>(92), 601-650.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--47 wp-block-paragraph\">3 Rodr\u00edguez-Pose, A. (2018). The revenge of the places that don\u2019t matter (and what to do about it). <em>Cambridge journal of regions, economy and society<\/em>, <em>11<\/em>(1), 189-209. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--48 wp-block-paragraph\">4 Dauth, W., Findeisen, S., &amp; Suedekum, J. (2014). The rise of the East and the Far East: German labor markets and trade integration. <em>Journal of the European economic association<\/em>, <em>12<\/em>(6), 1643-1675. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--49 wp-block-paragraph\">5 Dippel, C., Gold, R., Heblich, S., &amp; Pinto, R. (2022). The effect of trade on workers and voters, The Economic Journal, 132(641), 199-217. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--50 wp-block-paragraph\">6 Schneider, L. (2020). Deindustrialisierung und wahlverhalten. <em>Wirtschaftsdienst<\/em>, <em>100<\/em>(10), 787-792. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--51 wp-block-paragraph\">7 Gold, R., &amp; Lehr, J. (2024). <em>Paying off populism: How regional policies affect voting behavior<\/em> (No. 2266). Kiel Working Paper. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--52 wp-block-paragraph\">8 Rodrik, D. (2022). An industrial policy for good jobs. <em>Hamilton Project\u2014Policy proposal. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution<\/em>, 1-31. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-class--is-open=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-context=\"{ &quot;id&quot;: &quot;accordion-item-59&quot;, &quot;openByDefault&quot;: false }\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.initAccordionItems\" data-wp-on-window--hashchange=\"callbacks.hashChange\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-item is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-item-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading has-icon has-icon-right\"><button aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"accordion-item-59-panel\" data-wp-bind--aria-expanded=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.toggle\" id=\"accordion-item-59\" type=\"button\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle\"><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-title\">Inflation Experience<\/span><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+<\/span><\/button><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div aria-labelledby=\"accordion-item-59\" data-wp-bind--hidden=\"state.isHidden\" data-wp-on--beforematch=\"actions.handleBeforeMatch\" id=\"accordion-item-59-panel\" role=\"region\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-panel is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-panel-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If there is a large influx of people into Germany, more people vote for extreme parties. So it is said. In reality, a different correlation becomes much clearer upon closer inspection: approval for populists has risen sharply when inflation is high. For example, the AfD&#8217;s poll numbers in Germany rose precisely since the peak of inflation in autumn 2022. The same applies to 2026: here too, approval for the AfD increased precisely at the moment when oil prices and inflation rose as a result of the war in the Middle East.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation seems to have had a similar effect in the USA. According to surveys, inflation was one of the most important issues for about 41 percent of US citizens in the 2024 election campaign<sup>1<\/sup>. And: where the problem was perceived most strongly, Donald Trump tended to win the election. In other words: without inflation, Trump might not have become president a second time.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A majority of voters stated before the 2024 EU elections that reducing inflation was one of their core concerns<sup>2<\/sup>. It seems logical that these preferences are also reflected in voting preferences. Indeed, an analysis of 13 European countries over a period of 30 years shows that voters punished incumbent governments at the ballot box when there were inflation surges during their term<sup>3<\/sup>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Researchers Jonathan Federle, Cathrin Mohr, and Moritz Schularick examined the impact of inflation shocks by analyzing the results of 365 elections in 18 industrialized nations. Result: wherever unexpected major inflation shocks occur, populists win \u2013 with a price increase of 10 percentage points, the share of votes for populist parties increased by an average of about 15 percent. The gain for populist parties was particularly large when inflation shocks were not offset by higher wages and salaries: if real incomes fell, there were usually significantly more demonstrations and strikes in the country concerned<sup>4<\/sup>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That inflation can have such a strong influence on voting behavior also seems to align with the findings of psychologists and sociologists: when prices rise, people experience a loss of control \u2013 to which many tend to react with a stronger inclination to vote for populists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Political implications<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the finding is correct, the fight against inflation takes on a whole new meaning. And this also influences the choice of means. According to classical economic understanding, inflation should primarily be countered by raising key interest rates. The problem: the effect then only occurs with some delay \u2013 possibly too late to stop the inclination to vote for populist parties. Furthermore, classical key interest rate hikes can even be counterproductive, as they tend to promote inequality \u2013 which in turn benefits populists: wealthy households profit from higher returns with such interest rate hikes, while low-income households have to set aside more money for (loan) repayments.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Precisely because classical measures tend to be too late or counterproductive with regard to voting behavior, economists like Isabella Weber instead call for preventive measures. For example, in the event of a geopolitical shock, the speculative surge in raw material prices could be prevented by rapidly stocking up on supplies. In Germany, gas reserves were indeed replenished at the beginning of 2023 to keep energy prices low. Contrary to the market-liberal ideal of economists, given the massive political consequences, direct government interventions can also be sensible \u2013 for example, targeted price controls and price caps<sup>5<\/sup>.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--54 wp-block-paragraph\">1 Gillespie, L. (2024). Survey: 41% of Americans Say Inflation is Their Top Economic Issue for the 2024 Election. <em>Retrieved October<\/em>, <em>28<\/em>, 2024. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--55 wp-block-paragraph\">2 Abnett, K. (2024). Economy, Migration, War top Voters\u2019 Concerns in EU Election\u2013Survey. <em>Retrieved October<\/em>, <em>28<\/em>, 2024. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--56 wp-block-paragraph\">3 Chappell Jr, H. W., &amp; Veiga, L. G. (2000). Economics and elections in Western Europe: 1960\u20131997. <em>Electoral Studies<\/em>, <em>19<\/em>(2-3), 183-197. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--57 wp-block-paragraph\">4 Federle, J. J., Mohr, C., &amp; Schularick, M. (2024). <em>Inflation surprises and election outcomes<\/em> (No. 2278). Kiel Working Paper. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--58 wp-block-paragraph\">5 Lara Jauregui, J., Weber, I. M., Pires, L. N., &amp; Teixeira, L. (2025). Price Shocks are Redistribution Shocks: Systemically Significant Prices for Inequality in the United States. <em>Isabella M. and Pires, Luiza Nassif and Teixeira, Lucas, Price Shocks are Redistribution Shocks: Systemically Significant Prices for Inequality in the United States<\/em>. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-class--is-open=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-context=\"{ &quot;id&quot;: &quot;accordion-item-65&quot;, &quot;openByDefault&quot;: false }\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.initAccordionItems\" data-wp-on-window--hashchange=\"callbacks.hashChange\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-item is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-item-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading has-icon has-icon-right\"><button aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"accordion-item-65-panel\" data-wp-bind--aria-expanded=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.toggle\" id=\"accordion-item-65\" type=\"button\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle\"><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-title\">Austerity<\/span><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+<\/span><\/button><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div aria-labelledby=\"accordion-item-65\" data-wp-bind--hidden=\"state.isHidden\" data-wp-on--beforematch=\"actions.handleBeforeMatch\" id=\"accordion-item-65-panel\" role=\"region\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-panel is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-panel-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Among the best-researched factors for people voting for populists are measures by which the state seeks to consolidate its finances \u2013 whether through cuts in social spending or higher taxes and duties. After pronounced austerity, populists regularly gain support. Numerous examples can be found for this, especially in Europe. A prominent example is Brexit, which was preceded by radical austerity measures by the British government between 2010 and 2015.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The economist Thiemo Fetzer shows in a great study that in those regions where these austerity measures were particularly strict, an above-average number of votes went to the populist UKIP party \u2013 by 3.5 to 11 percentage points more. This could have been decisive for Brexit. If the austerity measures had not been adopted, the referendum, according to Fetzer&#8217;s diagnosis, could well have turned out in favor of the &#8220;Remain&#8221; camp<sup>1<\/sup>. Even individual austerity measures, such as the cut in housing benefit for low-income tenant families decided by the British government in 2011, led to demonstrably higher approval for &#8220;Leave,&#8221; according to Fetzer \u2013 and to many affected &#8220;Remain&#8221; supporters not casting a vote<sup>2<\/sup>.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similar effects are found for Sweden: In 2006, an austerity program was adopted here, which, among other things, significantly cut spending on health and unemployment benefits. The introduction of this austerity program led to a significant increase in the vote share of the far-right party &#8220;Swedish Democrats&#8221;<sup>3<\/sup>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The effect of austerity can also be demonstrated at a pan-European level. An evaluation of 200 elections across European countries shows that a 1 percent cut in public spending leads to an increase in the vote share of extremist parties by about 3 percentage points<sup>4<\/sup>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Political implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If austerity measures increase the vote shares of populist and extremist parties, are targeted public expenditures, for example in economically disadvantaged regions, a means against populists? There are no clear results and answers to this yet.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Initial findings show that approval for populist parties actually decreases due to targeted EU investments. Among others, Giuseppe Albanese and co-authors prove that support for populists in Italian municipalities that received payments under an EU regional fund was 5 percent lower than in municipalities that received no payment<sup>5<\/sup>. Populism researcher Robert Gold also found that far-right parties gained less support in recent decades in those regions where the EU invested disproportionately through its structural funds.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the other hand, the EU has recently launched large investment packages, including the &#8220;Next Generation EU&#8221; package announced in 2020, amounting to 750 billion euros, to cushion the economic consequences of the Corona crisis. However, this has not prevented populist parties from remaining on the rise in many regions during this period. Preliminary conclusion: further research seems necessary to understand under what circumstances such investments lead to declining approval for populists.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--60 wp-block-paragraph\">1 Fetzer, T. (2019). Did austerity cause Brexit?. <em>American Economic Review<\/em>, <em>109<\/em>(11), 3849-3886.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--61 wp-block-paragraph\">2 Fetzer, T., Sen, S., &amp; Souza, P. C. (2019). Housing insecurity, homelessness and populism: Evidence from the UK. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--62 wp-block-paragraph\">3 Bo, E. D., Finan, F., Folke, O., Persson, T., &amp; Rickne, J. (2018). Economic losers and political winners: Sweden\u2019s radical right. <em>Unpublished manuscript, Department of Political Science, UC Berkeley<\/em>, <em>2<\/em>(5), 2. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--63 wp-block-paragraph\">4 Gabriel, R. D., Klein, M., &amp; Pessoa, A. S. (2026). The political costs of austerity. <em>Review of Economics and Statistics<\/em>, <em>108<\/em>(1), 145-161. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--64 wp-block-paragraph\">5 Albanese, G., Barone, G., &amp; De Blasio, G. (2022). Populist voting and losers\u2019 discontent: Does redistribution matter?. <em>European Economic Review<\/em>, <em>141<\/em>, 104000.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-class--is-open=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-context=\"{ &quot;id&quot;: &quot;accordion-item-71&quot;, &quot;openByDefault&quot;: false }\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.initAccordionItems\" data-wp-on-window--hashchange=\"callbacks.hashChange\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-item is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-item-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading has-icon has-icon-right\"><button aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"accordion-item-71-panel\" data-wp-bind--aria-expanded=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.toggle\" id=\"accordion-item-71\" type=\"button\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle\"><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-title\">China shocks<\/span><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+<\/span><\/button><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div aria-labelledby=\"accordion-item-71\" data-wp-bind--hidden=\"state.isHidden\" data-wp-on--beforematch=\"actions.handleBeforeMatch\" id=\"accordion-item-71-panel\" role=\"region\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-panel is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-panel-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Among the deeply underestimated underlying reasons for the rise of populists in all sorts of richer countries is something that can be categorized under the term China shocks. Almost everywhere where right-wing populists have won in the past ten years, there have previously been severe economic dislocations triggered by new competition from low-cost providers from emerging countries \u2013 primarily from China. For the USA, the term China shock was coined for this. Recently, a (second) China shock has also been discussed for Europe and Germany \u2013 meaning a phenomenon of drastically increasing imports from China coupled with simultaneously struggling (German) exports to China.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A whole series of studies now show that these shocks, through their economic and social effects, also influence voting behavior. Logically: here too, the feeling of a loss of control is directly or indirectly reinforced. What can be done against the sometimes heavily subsidized competition from afar?   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nobel laureate in economics Daron Acemoglu has shown that unemployment demonstrably rises more sharply in US regions where import tariffs for Chinese products were particularly low<sup>1<\/sup>. Wages also fell in the affected regions<sup>2<\/sup>. As David Autor demonstrated in his famous study, the consequences of the China shock from the early 2000s in the US contributed to an above-average number of people voting for Donald Trump in the affected Rust Belt regions in the 2016 elections.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also legendary in this context is the book by current US Vice President J.D. Vance, who describes the regional consequences of decline on people in \u201cHillbilly Elegy.\u201d In several European countries, the first \u201cChina shock\u201d also directly affected the political attitudes of the population: In Great Britain, an increase in the Chinese import shock \u2013 by, statistically speaking, one standard deviation \u2013 led to a two percentage point increase in \u201cLeave\u201d votes during the Brexit vote<sup>3<\/sup>. In France, an increase in the Chinese import shock, in turn, led to a 0.4 percentage point higher share of votes for the far-right Front National<sup>4<\/sup>. In Germany, too, the shock significantly increased the AfD&#8217;s share of votes<sup>5<\/sup>.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Political implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As with almost all empirically verifiable factors, the core issue with China shocks is that they reinforce the feeling of powerlessness and loss of control. Accordingly, all measures by which governments and the EU counter unfair competition from subsidized low-cost offers should be helpful. This could not only mitigate the consequences of the shocks but also give people in the affected countries the feeling that their own governments have not given up control and are indeed acting in the interest of their own population.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">US President Donald Trump has clearly been aiming for this effect since 2025 by repeatedly threatening and implementing higher tariffs. The only question is whether this highly conflict-ridden policy, beyond the mere impression of supposed capability, also leads to an actual improvement in the economic situation \u2013 and thus permanently remedies the feeling of powerlessness. Especially since it always entails the risk of ongoing trade conflicts, i.e., the opposite of stability and control.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More effective could be targeted industrial policy measures that protect threatened regions early from the consequences of such shocks and create new perspectives. Significant parts of US President Joe Biden&#8217;s economic policy in the years leading up to 2024 also aimed at this. The Inflation Reduction Act was intended to direct investments specifically into weakened regions. This actually led to increased economic output and a record level of employment. However, as analyses by populism researcher Robert Gold show, the expected effect that voters would therefore vote less strongly for Donald Trump did not materialize at first.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the long run, better managed globalization could help, where governments are allowed to pursue industrial policy, but this is covered by a new consensus on the rules for it \u2013 also to remedy the feeling of powerlessness and curb populists. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--66 wp-block-paragraph\">1 Acemoglu, D., Autor, D., Dorn, D., Hanson, G. H., &amp; Price, B. (2016). Import competition and the great US employment sag of the 2000s. <em>Journal of labor economics<\/em>, <em>34<\/em>(S1), S141-S198. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--67 wp-block-paragraph\">2 Autor, D. H., Dorn, D., &amp; Hanson, G. H. (2013). The China syndrome: Local labor market effects of import competition in the United States. <em>American economic review<\/em>, <em>103<\/em>(6), 2121-2168. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--68 wp-block-paragraph\">3 Colantone, I., &amp; Stanig, P. (2018). Global competition and Brexit. <em>American political science review<\/em>, <em>112<\/em>(2), 201-218. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--69 wp-block-paragraph\">4 Malgouyres, C. (2017). Trade shocks and far-right voting: Evidence from French presidential elections. <em>Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Research Paper No. RSCAS<\/em>, <em>21<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--70 wp-block-paragraph\">5 Dippel, C., Gold, R., Heblich, S., &amp; Pinto, R. (2017). <em>Instrumental variables and causal mechanisms: Unpacking the effect of trade on workers and voters<\/em> (No. w23209). National Bureau of Economic Research. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-class--is-open=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-context=\"{ &quot;id&quot;: &quot;accordion-item-75&quot;, &quot;openByDefault&quot;: false }\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.initAccordionItems\" data-wp-on-window--hashchange=\"callbacks.hashChange\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-item is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-item-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading has-icon has-icon-right\"><button aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"accordion-item-75-panel\" data-wp-bind--aria-expanded=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.toggle\" id=\"accordion-item-75\" type=\"button\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle\"><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-title\">Bank Crises as a Source of Discontent<\/span> <span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+<\/span><\/button><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div aria-labelledby=\"accordion-item-75\" data-wp-bind--hidden=\"state.isHidden\" data-wp-on--beforematch=\"actions.handleBeforeMatch\" id=\"accordion-item-75-panel\" role=\"region\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-panel is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-panel-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At first glance, the finding that financial crises and bank crashes lead to higher approval ratings for populists seems rather surprising. However, the great financial crisis of 2008, among other things, suggests exactly that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most prominent study on this comes from economists Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph Trebesch. In an evaluation of financial crises over the past 140 years, they show that such crashes intensify social polarization. Far-right parties particularly benefit: on average, their vote shares increased by 30 percent after financial crises. Bank crises seem to intensify in a special way the discontent that leads people to vote for political extremes. &#8220;Classical&#8221; recessions or macroeconomic shocks that were not financial in nature did not trigger such an increase, according to the evaluations<sup>1<\/sup>.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yann Algan and co-authors came to similar conclusions in their study of the 2008 financial crisis. By evaluating data from 26 European countries, the researchers show that the crisis not only led to significantly more unemployment but also gave populist parties a significant boost. If unemployment rose by one percentage point due to the shock, this was accompanied by a gain in votes for anti-establishment parties of 2 to 4 percentage points<sup>2<\/sup>.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The connection is explainable in any case: like some of the other important factors, bank crises also reinforce the feeling of a loss of control, which is already present in times of poorly managed globalization. For the narrative of populists, the fact that banks are rescued with a lot of money in such crises \u2013 while the &#8220;average citizen&#8221; bears the costs and unemployment \u2013 is also suitable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In addition, indebted households are particularly burdened during bank crises. Populists exploit this too. In Hungary, populist parties advocated debt-friendly policies and against &#8220;the elite,&#8221; &#8220;the bankers,&#8221; and &#8220;international financial capitalism&#8221; after the 2008 financial crisis \u2013 a strategy with which they recorded a significant increase in votes<sup>3<\/sup>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Political implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avoiding bank crises is always good \u2013 whether for economic, social, or political reasons: to avoid having to deal with strengthening populists as a late consequence. Against this background, economists call for both preventive and reactive measures. Moritz Schularick and Yann Algan therefore fundamentally advocate long-term investments in research, innovation, and public infrastructure to promote economic stability. If bank crises nevertheless occur, (Europe-wide) counter-cyclical fiscal policy measures and targeted support for less-skilled workers are needed to prevent the success of populists. Another electoral policy consequence could be to ensure much more strongly when rescuing banks that non-bankers are also protected from the consequences of such a crisis.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--72 wp-block-paragraph\">1 Funke, M., Schularick, M., &amp; Trebesch, C. (2016). Going to extremes: Politics after financial crises, 1870\u20132014. <em>European Economic Review<\/em>, <em>88<\/em>, 227-260. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--73 wp-block-paragraph\">2 Algan, Y., Guriev, S., Papaioannou, E., &amp; Passari, E. (2017). The European trust crisis and the rise of populism. <em>Brookings papers on economic activity<\/em>, <em>2017<\/em>(2), 309-400. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--74 wp-block-paragraph\">3 Gy\u00f6ngy\u00f6si, G., &amp; Verner, E. (2022). Financial crisis, creditor\u2010debtor conflict, and populism. <em>The Journal of Finance<\/em>, <em>77<\/em>(4), 2471-2523. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-class--is-open=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-context=\"{ &quot;id&quot;: &quot;accordion-item-79&quot;, &quot;openByDefault&quot;: false }\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.initAccordionItems\" data-wp-on-window--hashchange=\"callbacks.hashChange\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-item is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-item-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading has-icon has-icon-right\"><button aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"accordion-item-79-panel\" data-wp-bind--aria-expanded=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.toggle\" id=\"accordion-item-79\" type=\"button\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle\"><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-title\">Inequality<\/span><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+<\/span><\/button><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div aria-labelledby=\"accordion-item-79\" data-wp-bind--hidden=\"state.isHidden\" data-wp-on--beforematch=\"actions.handleBeforeMatch\" id=\"accordion-item-79-panel\" role=\"region\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-panel is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-panel-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">People vote for the AfD in rich regions as well as in poorer ones. This is often said to argue that voting behavior has nothing to do with economic and social inequality. In reality, studies show that there is a clear correlation. While populists are indeed not only elected in poorer regions, the absolute gap between income or wealth also does not seem to be decisive. However, an exacerbation of inequality certainly leads to more people voting for populists.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An analysis of EU data shows that the share of votes for far-right parties increased by an average of 4.8 percentage points when the incomes of the top ten percent of earners had previously risen significantly \u2013 by, statistically speaking, one <a>standard deviation<\/a><sup>1<\/sup>. These results were confirmed in studies of OECD countries: here too, growing income inequality is regularly followed by higher approval for far-right parties. However, actual monetary differences between incomes are not the driving motive behind this effect.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Election analyses repeatedly confirm that approval for right-wing populist parties among workers is now drastically higher than among the general population. This suggests that social conditions definitely play a role. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, in-depth investigations into the motives show that higher income inequality primarily reinforces the vote for populists by driving the fear of social decline<sup>2<\/sup>. This also confirms the finding that, individually, the fear of loss of control and powerlessness significantly contributes to many people opting for populists and their rhetoric of regaining control \u2013 \u201ctake back control,\u201d as it successfully served as a slogan for the Brexit campaign. Another effect confirmed in studies: income inequality reduces trust in political elites \u2013 and leads to a stronger emphasis on national pride<sup>1<\/sup>.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Political implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What measures are suitable to curb this effect? One immediate option seems to be redistribution measures, such as a progressive consumption tax<sup>2<\/sup> or higher taxes on high incomes and wealth. However, if inequality primarily affects voting behavior through the reinforced fear of status loss and decline, such tax policy measures alone are unlikely to achieve much. Even higher taxation of upper incomes would not per se change the fears of those who fear their own decline. Then, it is much more about all those measures that could help to remedy the feeling of powerlessness.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This could be achieved, for example, by actively creating new perspectives for supposedly marginalized population groups. Among the more modern policies that could also curb populism is therefore a proactive regional policy that attracts new industries early on when upheavals are imminent and thus actively helps employees find new jobs. This also fundamentally includes a more active industrial policy that attempts to cushion the consequences of technology and globalization shocks that would otherwise result from pure market forces \u2013 and drive people into the arms of populists out of frustration<sup>3<\/sup>.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--76 wp-block-paragraph\">1 P\u00e1stor, \u013d., &amp; Veronesi, P. (2021). Inequality aversion, populism, and the backlash against globalization. <em>The Journal of Finance<\/em>, <em>76<\/em>(6), 2857-2906.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--77 wp-block-paragraph\">2 Engler, S., &amp; Weisstanner, D. (2021). The threat of social decline: income inequality and radical right support. <em>Journal of European Public Policy<\/em>, <em>28<\/em>(2), 153-173. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--78 wp-block-paragraph\">3 Gold, R. (2022, February). From a better understanding of the drivers of populism to a new political agenda. In <em>Forum for a New Economy, WP<\/em> (No. 4).  <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-class--is-open=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-context=\"{ &quot;id&quot;: &quot;accordion-item-85&quot;, &quot;openByDefault&quot;: false }\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.initAccordionItems\" data-wp-on-window--hashchange=\"callbacks.hashChange\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-item is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-item-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading has-icon has-icon-right\"><button aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"accordion-item-85-panel\" data-wp-bind--aria-expanded=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.toggle\" id=\"accordion-item-85\" type=\"button\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle\"><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-title\">Disruptive Factor Social Media<\/span><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+<\/span><\/button><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div aria-labelledby=\"accordion-item-85\" data-wp-bind--hidden=\"state.isHidden\" data-wp-on--beforematch=\"actions.handleBeforeMatch\" id=\"accordion-item-85-panel\" role=\"region\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-panel is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-panel-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A growing body of empirical research suggests that manipulation and tone in social media primarily benefit populists. This applies not only to Donald Trump or Elon Musk, who actively use these media for their own purposes. However, this effect primarily reflects how populists use amplification mechanisms \u2013 and gain voters or sympathizers through demagoguery in relevant channels. Whether social media per se can be classified as an original cause of the populism wave of recent years is less clear.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A prominent meta-study by Ekaterina Zhuravskaya and co-authors shows that social media, compared to other communication technologies, possesses various characteristics that promote populism. Firstly, populist arguments against \u201cthe establishment\u201d appear more credible on online platforms than in other media. Secondly, social media creates its own bubbles through its algorithms, which confirm users&#8217; political attitudes and strengthen the \u201cus-versus-them feeling\u201d<sup>1<\/sup>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Furthermore, a lack of regulations facilitates the spread of fake news, from which populists particularly benefit: During the 2016 US presidential election, 30 million fake news stories were shared that portrayed Donald Trump positively, while Hillary Clinton was portrayed positively in 8 million fake news stories<sup>2<\/sup>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The widespread use of social media therefore has direct political implications. In Italy, for example, expanded internet access after 2008 demonstrably led to higher approval for the populist 5-Star Movement<sup>3<\/sup>. The renowned populism researcher Sergei Guriev confirms this correlation in an analysis of data from 33 European democracies between 2007 and 2018. According to this, the spread of 3G internet access increased the share of votes for right-wing populist parties by 4.6 percentage points during this period<sup>4<\/sup>.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Much also suggests that the proliferation of media per se tends to reinforce rather than reduce the perceived loss of control. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Political implications <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Contrary to public perception, fake news is still largely spread by people. Therefore, technical solutions are likely to be insufficient to limit the success of populist parties on social media. Instead, verified information must be clearly labeled, and incentives must be created to deter the spread of fake news<sup>5<\/sup>. A contribution to reducing populist reflexes could be to oblige social platforms to introduce comprehensive controls of posted content<sup>2<\/sup>.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fundamentally, solutions to the problem could also arise from a new understanding of technology policy, as suggested by Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu \u2013 where the direction of innovation is less left to market forces and corporations and more socially and democratically determined than before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--80 wp-block-paragraph\">1 Zhuravskaya, E., Petrova, M., &amp; Enikolopov, R. (2020). Political effects of the internet and social media. <em>Annual review of economics<\/em>, <em>12<\/em>(1), 415-438. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--81 wp-block-paragraph\">2 Allcott, H., &amp; Gentzkow, M. (2017). Social media and fake news in the 2016 election. <em>Journal of economic perspectives<\/em>, <em>31<\/em>(2), 211-236. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--82 wp-block-paragraph\">3 Campante, F., Durante, R., &amp; Sobbrio, F. (2018). Politics 2.0: The multifaceted effect of broadband internet on political participation. <em>Journal of the European Economic Association<\/em>, <em>16<\/em>(4), 1094-1136. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--83 wp-block-paragraph\">4 Guriev, S., Melnikov, N., &amp; Zhuravskaya, E. (2021). 3g internet and confidence in government. <em>The Quarterly Journal of Economics<\/em>, <em>136<\/em>(4), 2533-2613. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--84 wp-block-paragraph\">5 Vosoughi, S., Roy, D., &amp; Aral, S. (2018). The spread of true and false news online. <em>science<\/em>, <em>359<\/em>(6380), 1146-1151. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-class--is-open=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-context=\"{ &quot;id&quot;: &quot;accordion-item-93&quot;, &quot;openByDefault&quot;: false }\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.initAccordionItems\" data-wp-on-window--hashchange=\"callbacks.hashChange\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-item is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-item-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading has-icon has-icon-right\"><button aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"accordion-item-93-panel\" data-wp-bind--aria-expanded=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.toggle\" id=\"accordion-item-93\" type=\"button\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle\"><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-title\">AI and Technologization<\/span><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+<\/span><\/button><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div aria-labelledby=\"accordion-item-93\" data-wp-bind--hidden=\"state.isHidden\" data-wp-on--beforematch=\"actions.handleBeforeMatch\" id=\"accordion-item-93-panel\" role=\"region\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-panel is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-panel-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If fears of losing control contribute to people voting for grandstanding populists, then it is highly likely that this is also the case when it comes to fears of new technologies \u2013 especially recently, those triggered by artificial intelligence and corresponding fears of losing human autonomy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Added to this is an old concern: that new technologies also bring increasing unemployment \u2013 which is controversial, as new technologies always create new potentials. However, Nobel laureate in economics Daron Acemoglu impressively showed in a much-noticed 2017 study that the use of industrial robots demonstrably increased the unemployment rate in the US<sup>1<\/sup>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since then, evidence has accumulated that technologization and automation also promote populism. For example, increasing automation had a demonstrable effect on the 2016 US presidential elections. Carl Frey, Thor Berger, and Chinchih Chen show that states whose economic output was more automated than elsewhere in the US voted disproportionately for Donald Trump. According to statistical analyses, Republicans would have lost US states like Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania \u2013 and thus the election \u2013 if automation in these states had been 25 percent lower<sup>2<\/sup>.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similar effects are found in Europe. In a long-term analysis for Western European countries, economists Massimo Anelli, Italo Colantone, and Piero Stanig show that individuals who are more exposed to automation tend to vote for nationalist and far-right parties<sup>3<\/sup>. Automation primarily induces individuals living under economically precarious conditions to vote for far-right parties<sup>4<\/sup>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Artificial intelligence could be a special case here. The effects of the rapid spread of artificial intelligence on the labor market are still insufficiently researched. However, economist Armin Granulo shows that the majority of Europeans already classify AI as a threat to jobs. This perception, regardless of the actual effects, has political implications: The evaluation of two representative experiments shows that classifying AI as a threat to jobs is associated with a dwindling trust in democratic institutions<sup>5<\/sup>.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nobel laureate in economics Daron Acemoglu puts forward the thesis in a new paper that the increasing use of AI increases the likelihood of state repression. Increasing automation increases inequality, which in turn increases public discontent and the likelihood of social resistance. To counter this, governments could either use state redistribution or repression measures<sup>6<\/sup>. Such state reactions to automation and AI would then give populists further momentum.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Political implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If new technologies particularly negatively affect certain population groups \u2013 such as those with lower qualifications \u2013 it would be obvious to address the corresponding discontent through financial redistribution. However, a positive effect of redistribution on voting behavior has so far only been conditionally proven empirically. One possible reason is that increasing automation not only threatens jobs but also the associated social status of individuals \u2013 a loss that is difficult to compensate for with compensatory payments alone<sup>7<\/sup>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If this diagnosis is correct, political responses must aim to protect the losers of increasing automation and AI not only reactively but also preventively. Fundamentally, economists like Acemoglu have long argued that technological change should be left much less to pure market forces. Historically, there are numerous examples that major technological innovations do not arise spontaneously in the economy but are the result of state policy, often militarily motivated in history. A new technology policy could therefore much more strongly direct and socially co-determine which technology is accepted and desired (directed technology). Ultimately, such a fundamental change in principles could then also be a means against the perceived loss of control \u2013 and counteract the widespread feeling that people are helplessly exposed to technological shocks.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--86 wp-block-paragraph\">1 Acemoglu, D., &amp; Restrepo, P. (2020). Robots and jobs: Evidence from US labor markets. <em>Journal of political economy<\/em>, <em>128<\/em>(6), 2188-2244. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--87 wp-block-paragraph\">2 Frey, C. B., Berger, T., &amp; Chen, C. (2018). Political machinery: did robots swing the 2016 US presidential election?. <em>Oxford Review of Economic Policy<\/em>, <em>34<\/em>(3), 418-442.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--88 wp-block-paragraph\">3 Anelli, M., Colantone, I., &amp; Stanig, P. (2019). <em>We were the robots: Automation and voting behavior in western europe<\/em> (No. 17\/19). CReAM Discussion Paper Series. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--89 wp-block-paragraph\">4 Im, Z. J., Mayer, N., Palier, B., &amp; Rovny, J. (2019). The \u201closers of automation\u201d: A reservoir of votes for the radical right?. <em>Research &amp; Politics<\/em>, <em>6<\/em>(1), 2053168018822395.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--90 wp-block-paragraph\">5 Granulo, A., Raff, A., &amp; Fuchs, C. (2026). Perceiving AI as labor-replacing reduces democratic legitimacy and political engagement. <em>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/em>, <em>123<\/em>(4), e2523508123. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--91 wp-block-paragraph\">6 Acemoglu, D., Gitmez, A. A., &amp; Shadmehr, M. (2026). <em>Automation and Repression<\/em> (No. w35336). National Bureau of Economic Research. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--92 wp-block-paragraph\">7 Gingrich, J. (2019). Did state responses to automation matter for voters?. <em>Research &amp; Politics<\/em>, <em>6<\/em>(1), 2053168019832745. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-class--is-open=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-context=\"{ &quot;id&quot;: &quot;accordion-item-102&quot;, &quot;openByDefault&quot;: false }\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.initAccordionItems\" data-wp-on-window--hashchange=\"callbacks.hashChange\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-item is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-item-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading has-icon has-icon-right\"><button aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"accordion-item-102-panel\" data-wp-bind--aria-expanded=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.toggle\" id=\"accordion-item-102\" type=\"button\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle\"><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-title\">Fear or Serenity \u2013 the Effect of Migration<\/span><span class=\"wp-block-accordion-heading__toggle-icon\" aria-hidden=\"true\">+<\/span><\/button><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div aria-labelledby=\"accordion-item-102\" data-wp-bind--hidden=\"state.isHidden\" data-wp-on--beforematch=\"actions.handleBeforeMatch\" id=\"accordion-item-102-panel\" role=\"region\" class=\"wp-block-accordion-panel is-layout-flow wp-block-accordion-panel-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the Berlin political bubble, it was long believed that the refugee crisis of 2015 first led to the rise of the AfD. However, there was never truly robust evidence for this \u2013 especially since right-wing populists have gained even stronger support in many other countries since then, even though there was no \u201c2015\u201d there. The disillusionment was accordingly great when the AfD continued to gain approval in 2026 despite significantly stricter asylum laws and declining immigration.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This does not mean that migration cannot also contribute to a perceived sense of powerlessness and loss of control. However, the connection between migration and the increase in votes for populist and far-right parties does not seem to be as clear-cut, according to the extensive research now available.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the one hand, there is evidence of a positive correlation. Economists Guglielmo Barone and Martin Halla show that far-right parties like Forza Italia or the FP\u00d6 were able to gain more votes when communities were exposed to more migration<sup>1,2<\/sup>. Thiemo Fetzer found empirical evidence that increasing migration raised the share of votes for the UKIP party in Great Britain<sup>3<\/sup>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the other hand, there is also plenty of evidence for a negative correlation: researchers Andreas Steinmayr, Paul Vertier, and Max Viskanic showed that higher immigration even reduced the share of votes for populist Austrian and French parties<sup>4,5<\/sup>. Lonsky specifies this effect for Finland: A one percent increase in migrants was associated with a 3.4 percentage point reduction in populist votes there<sup>6<\/sup>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The contradictory nature of these studies shows that the relationship between migration and populism is complex and depends on various factors. The number of migrants, their qualifications, or whether they are merely passing through or staying long-term \u2013 all these variables seem to influence whether populists benefit from migration<sup>7<\/sup>. It is also striking that, for example, in Germany, right-wing populists receive above-average votes in regions where the proportion of migrants in the population is rather low \u2013 and conversely, rather low where there has been much migration in the past. If there were a direct correlation, it would also be difficult to explain why approval for the right continues to increase despite declining immigration. This at least suggests that there are other, possibly stronger, influencing factors.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Political implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ambiguous effect of migration on voting decisions in favor of populist forces complicates political recommendations. Closer investigations, for example, into the often-highlighted more restrictive migration policy in Denmark, show that while this imitation of right-wing policies contributed to short-term electoral successes for social democrats against right-wing populists, the total share of votes for right-wing nationalist and far-right parties in Denmark has not decreased since then.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is likely exacerbated by the fact that people systematically overestimate the extent of migration. In the US, the proportion of migrants was estimated at 35 percent in surveys \u2013 in fact, it was only 10 percent. Other factors, such as the educational level of migrants, are also continuously misjudged: In a 2019 survey, Britons estimated that only about 25 percent of migrants had a university degree \u2013 in reality, it was 50 percent<sup>8<\/sup>.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The British economist <a>Paul Collier<\/a> recommended in 2025 a proactive migration policy that consciously addresses the concerns of the local population \u2013 for example, through targeted investments and financial flows into regions that have experienced particularly strong migration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, the populist narrative of alienation is likely to unfold its own effect \u2013 regardless of actual impacts. Accordingly, counter-narratives that focus on dismantling deliberately stirred fears \u2013 without downplaying legitimate concerns \u2013 are likely to be important. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--94 wp-block-paragraph\">1 Barone, G., D&#8217;Ignazio, A., De Blasio, G., &amp; Naticchioni, P. (2016). Mr. Rossi, Mr. Hu and politics. The role of immigration in shaping natives&#8217; voting behavior. <em>Journal of Public Economics<\/em>, <em>136<\/em>, 1-13.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--95 wp-block-paragraph\">2 Halla, M., Wagner, A. F., &amp; Zweim\u00fcller, J. (2012). Does immigration into their neighborhoods incline voters toward the extreme right? The case of the Freedom Party of Austria.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--96 wp-block-paragraph\">3 Becker, S. O., &amp; Fetzer, T. (2016). Does migration cause extreme voting. <em>Center for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy and The Economic &amp; Social Research Council<\/em>, 1-54. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--97 wp-block-paragraph\">4 Steinmayr, A. (2021). Contact versus exposure: Refugee presence and voting for the far right. <em>Review of Economics and Statistics<\/em>, <em>103<\/em>(2), 310-327. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--98 wp-block-paragraph\">5 Vertier, P., Viskanic, M., &amp; Gamalerio, M. (2023). Dismantling the \u201cJungle\u201d: Migrant relocation and extreme voting in France. <em>Political Science Research and Methods<\/em>, <em>11<\/em>(1), 129-143. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--99 wp-block-paragraph\">6 Lonsky, J. (2021). Does immigration decrease far-right popularity? Evidence from Finnish municipalities. <em>Journal of Population Economics<\/em>, <em>34<\/em>(1), 97-139.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--100 wp-block-paragraph\">7 Guriev, S., &amp; Papaioannou, E. (2022). The political economy of populism. <em>Journal of Economic literature<\/em>, <em>60<\/em>(3), 753-832. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-footnote is-style-footnote--101 wp-block-paragraph\">8 Alesina, A., Miano, A., &amp; Stantcheva, S. (2023). Immigration and redistribution. <em>The Review of Economic Studies<\/em>, <em>90<\/em>(1), 1-39. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mission resumed The Forum New Economy in the New Paradigm Alliance What is needed for a new economic paradigm to solve the major crises of our time? The Forum New Economy contributed to finding answers to this question from 2019 to 2026 under the umbrella of the European Climate Foundation \u2013 as a joint project [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":861,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-no-title","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-311","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/311","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=311"}],"version-history":[{"count":23,"href":"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/311\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":873,"href":"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/311\/revisions\/873"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/861"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forum-new-economy.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=311"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}