That sounds a bit tragic – after endless months in which Friedrich Merz’s friends from business and rather ultra-orthodox economics have left no stone unturned to theatrically describe the immediate decline of the economy, the impending deindustrialization, the last place in growth tables, and generally the country’s incompetence, over-bureaucratization, and lack of willingness to perform.
Of course, this was calculated: following the supposedly proven motto that suffering ultimately increases people’s willingness for “painful” reforms – especially when more convincing arguments for reforms are lacking; or when the lack of work ethic is lamented in a country where stress-related health issues are at a record high.
The double historical drama now unfolding is that the staccato of negative reports seems not to have increased the willingness of large parts of the population at all, as the electoral defeats of the two reform government parties already suggest. Instead, it has reinforced the narrative of all authoritarians that everything is wrong in the country anyway – and therefore, a firm hand is needed. Merz and his fellow complainers have conjured up the spirits that are now causing the downfall – only for their own.
Martin Kaelble and I discussed what this means for the coming months in Episode 3 of our podcast. The gist: it makes no sense to sugarcoat everything now.
In any case, it would be urgently necessary to look more closely at what truly leads people to vote for the AfD – and when and where they do so particularly strongly. We have compiled the state of research in our Reality Check – work in progress. In the coming days, we will also speak with specialists in Paris, where the far-right Marine Le Pen could become president as early as spring. What are the commonalities, what is different in France? And what can be learned from France, where the Le Pens have been present since the 1980s? An update will follow.
Credit Picture: (c) Maja Hitij/Getty Images