This is how the AfD’s poll numbers in Germany rose precisely after the peak of inflation in autumn 2022. Something similar applies to 2026: here, too, support for the AfD rose at the very moment when, as a result of the war in the Near and Middle East, oil prices and inflation increased. Rising prices appear to have had a similar effect in the United States. According to polls, inflation was one of the most important issues in the 2024 election campaign for around 41% of US citizens. And: where the problem was perceived most strongly, Donald Trump tended to win the election. In other words: without inflation, Trump might not have become president a second time.
How inflation can have such a strong influence on voting behaviour – and what loss of control has to do with it – is what we examine in a detailed ranking, in which we bring together the current state of research and highlight different factors that promote populism. More on this in our Reality Check.