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Inflation shocks – the underestimated driver of discontent

When there is a larger influx of people into Germany, more people vote for extreme parties. So the claim goes. In reality, a different connection becomes much clearer on closer inspection: support for populists has risen sharply when inflation is high.

This is how the AfD’s poll numbers in Germany rose precisely after the peak of inflation in autumn 2022. Something similar applies to 2026: here, too, support for the AfD rose at the very moment when, as a result of the war in the Near and Middle East, oil prices and inflation increased. Rising prices appear to have had a similar effect in the United States. According to polls, inflation was one of the most important issues in the 2024 election campaign for around 41% of US citizens. And: where the problem was perceived most strongly, Donald Trump tended to win the election. In other words: without inflation, Trump might not have become president a second time.

How inflation can have such a strong influence on voting behaviour – and what loss of control has to do with it – is what we examine in a detailed ranking, in which we bring together the current state of research and highlight different factors that promote populism. More on this in our Reality Check.

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